Michelle Meyer, Senior U.S. Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has distributed a widely cited note examining labor force participation rates (LFPR). In it, she argues that the LFPR will likely move sideways for the next few years. The two primary trends working on the rate, she says, are the decline in LFPR among the youth population (in particular between ages 16 and 19) and the rise among those aged 55 and older. This latter trend “likely reflect[s] higher life expectancy, less confidence in social benefit programs and loss of wealth from the Great Recession.”

The note itself has not been distributed online but you can find excerpts and analysis at Calculated Risk andBusiness Insider, among others.