I’ve frequently noted that one of my favorite economic forecasts is the Livingston Survey. It is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations, started by the late columnist Joseph Livingston in 1946. Management of the survey was taken over by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank in 1990. The survey summarizes the forecasts of a number of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. The June 2014 survey results just hit my desk, and they tell a fairly interesting story of our economy.

Annualized GDP Growth RateFirst, the 28 economists surveyed think gross domestic product (GDP) for the first half of this year will come in lower than previously expected. In the December survey, they had forecast an annualized GDP growth of 2.5% for the first half of this year, anemic but positive. Now, those economists think GDP for the first half of this year will come in at 1.5% (annualized), which is not very good news. However, they have increased their forecasts for the second half of this year to an annualized rate of 3.0%, which will be fairly good news if it happens.

Inflation is basically flatlined right now—economists continue to see 2014 Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] inflation coming in at 1.8%, increasing slightly to 2.0% next year. Those of us who remember the 1970s know that this is a very sustainable range for the U.S. economy.

The unemployment rate appears to be coming in better than expected. In December, economists surveyed forecasted mid-year unemployment at 7.0%, but it now appears this will come in at about 6.3%. Naturally, pundits might argue how this is happening with a fairly anemic economy, but that’s a debate for another day. Currently, economists forecast December unemployment at 6.1%, and mid-year 2015 at 5.9%.

Finally, T-bill and 10-year Treasury rates are both expected to rise in the coming year. T-bills, currently at about 0.04%, are anticipated to rise to 0.20% by the middle of next year and 0.95% by the end of 2015. Ten-year treasuries are expected to increase to about 3.50% over the next 12 months and should end 2015 at about 3.75%.

For your own copy of the Livingston Survey with all of the backup data, check with the research department at the Philadelphia FED.

1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services; see https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ for more information.